System for classifying and assessing territorial risks in the construction of civil facilities in the Arctic

Introduction. The relevance of developing the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation is determined by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation No. 645 of October 26, 2020 (as amended on February 27, 2023) “The Strategy for the Development of the Arctic Zone of the Russian Federation and Ensuring National Security for the Period until 2035”. The development of the Arctic zone is accompanied by specific risks associated with extreme natural and climatic conditions and the degradation of permafrost. According to various estimates, the air temperature in the Arctic is rising three times faster than the global average, which leads to permafrost subsidence and creates multiple serious environmental and social threats. The construction of civil facilities in such harsh conditions requires a risk management system at the pre-investment stage, which includes the classification of territorial and organizational and technological risks and the assessment of an integral site suitability index.

Materials and methods. This paper presents the main results of research work on the analysis and characterization of territorial and organizational-technological risks in the Arctic. An approach to the multifactorial classification of territorial risks using geoinformation data and expert weighting coefficients is proposed. A scale for the integral suitability index of a territory is also proposed.

Results. A classification of risks for the construction of civil facilities in the Arctic sector of the Russian Federation has been developed. A formula for an integral index of territorial suitability is proposed, taking into account the weight contribution of each category. The application of the methodology is demonstrated using the example of a hypothetical site in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug: the calculated suitability index corresponds to the “significantly hazardous” class and requires adaptation measures.

Conclusions. The developed system allows for the pre-investment stage to plan a qualitative ranking of potential construction sites by risk level and justify decision-making. Its application contributes to improving the safety and sustainability of infrastructure in the Arctic by selecting optimal territories and/or developing protective measures at the pre-investment stage of construction.

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